Tag Archive: Donald Trump
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Once more unto the breach my friend, once more. Another week and finally I have some news to discuss. It has I admit been a while since I have written. My New Year’s resolution is well and truly broken.
This week we have seen Donald Trump lambasted in the American media for not taking a harder line on Russia. The Republican Senator Bob Corker stated that “the dam has broken“. Whilst the word of treason was floated, it will yet to be seen whether this will have a marked affect. The New York Times have written a great piece this week on the waywardness of the Republican party, which is well worth reading – ‘The Dam Has Broken. But For How Long?’.
What can be said, it is one of the first times we have seen significant Republican figures come out and take jabs at Trump. Paul Ryan, House Speaker, was one such figure to voice his opinion, “The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally”. Whilst not directly speaking about Trump, he is providing a countering opinion with the gravitas of his position as Speaker. What was amusing was immediately after making his statement, he was asked whether he was condemning Trump, which he pirouetted away from. The cynic in me can only see that Ryan is trying to show his strength of character in effect offering a clear subtle difference from Trump. He has to be mindful however, that Trump still has a large portion of the Republican electorate. If you would like to read Ryan’s address, you can view that here – Speaker, Paul Ryan’s Statement On Russia.
From the fall out from Helsinki we need to turn to another world leader, Theresa May. There seems to be no let up for her and her leadership. Very rarely in politics do I ever feel a tinge of sadness for a politician, but reading news and watching Mrs May in the commons, I feel it. It’s like watching that favourite pet slowly dwindle, family members giving all-too-knowing glances at each other. Anyway, enough of my article liberating my childhood repressed memories; Theresa May is facing an uphill struggle. The last two weeks, May has seen several resignations amid Brexit negotiations.
The death toll includes: David Davis (lead Brexit Negotiator), Boris Johnson (Foreign Secretary) & lesser known Steve Baker (Davis’ right hand man). Yesterday May’s government narrowly saw off a rebel amendment on the trade bill, securing a narrow 6 vote margin. May now has a busy week and will be eyeing the Parliamentary recess as the safe house with which to gather her resources and sure up her support. At this stage in the game, a no deal Brexit is becoming a genuine reality. One can only hope that political differences and point scoring can be put on the backbench (pun intended) and the focus to be on securing the future of the United Kingdom.
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Gold is Top Trump
A year or so ago I couldn’t have called it. I might have had the quandary at the back of my mind but now it seems more and more likely: Trump is going to be the next Republican Presidential candidate. I wish I was a gambling man, I should have put a bet on it. The caucuses have proved that the Trump phenomena isn’t a foible in the American political mind-set, it is a reaction to world instability and the growing realisation that America’s power has lessened. It is also in part a reaction to the over exposure America has had to the global economy and the currency wars that are being played out from the EU to Asia. It isn’t exclusively just these reasons of course, the political genus won’t all be looking at it from the macro-economic level, but I have been surprised to read in the Washington Post that there are members of the Middle-class who are voting for Trump.
This shock only comes from the well-documented statistics that his majority of votes comes from his self-confessed “poorly-educated”, those without college education. Why therefore is this occurring and where does gold come into this?
Trump is the best asset class this year (other than Hilary), he is a direct development of discontent formed because of the establishment and theHe is, much like gold, the asset with a negative correlation matrix: when things go badly he/gold does well. Gold this year has gone up £157.22/$169.25/€159.18 – in sterling that is 21.68%. In real terms, if you had bought a kilo bar on Jan 4th and sold it based on the LBMA fix price (minus the premiums), you would have made £5,054.62 profit.
status quo. He is a celebrity of sorts and that helps with his publicity but his appeal is that he is not part of the establishment.
Gold is benefiting from all the uncertainty that is unfolding this year. Much like Trump, it is riding a wave of speculation that the establishment (mainly the Banks) have not dealt with the issues that caused recession last time. The fear that recession is round the corner is a genuine concern and the inflated equities have already had a correction following multiple counts of low profit announcements made by businesses. Likewise the Chinese economy is no longer heaving with production and is slowing down – I for one am watching the so called BRIC countries waiting for the next couple of announcements – I strongly suspect larger ripples will be coming.
Gold is the anti-establishment asset class. They will try to suppress it and are quick to write it off – but the reality is that it is being bought into and voted for by those who condemn it. It is a product of its surroundings and we wouldn’t have to have it if it wasn’t for the defective financial sector that keeps us grinding to a halt.
Verdict:- Gold is sitting pretty at the moment. I still think there is more uncertainty to come out and I haven’t mentioned Brexit which is only going to cause more riskiness. Gold for the most part reflects fact in its pricing – it is a mirror of economic uncertainty. As for Trump – he is a mirror of a cracked political system – he may even shatter it. Bad luck for seven years?
Article by Michael Cooper